美国仿制药行业的未来形态？
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美国仿制药行业的未来形态？
笔记 2015-07-27 识林 07-28 最新更新：北京时间本周一夜里，美国时间周一白天，Teva已宣布以405亿美元的价格收购Allergan的仿制药业务。 相信大家大概都知道Teva公司向Mylan公司股东开出400亿美元的收购标价。我同样相信你们也知道，Mylan公司出价340亿美元收购Perrigo公司。Teva收购Mylan和Mylan收购Perrigo都不为被收购方（Mylan和Perrigo）的董事会所欢迎和支持。这一收购之舞已经持续了数周，到现在为止都没有很大进展。 上周，有美国媒体报道，Allergan（Actavis与Allergan合并后的公司名称）正在考虑分拆其业务，很可能想分拆或出售其仿制药资产。本周末已有多家媒体报道，Teva实际正在谈判希望以400-450亿美元的出价购买Allergan公司的仿制药业务，这一交易最早可能在下周公布。这将在美国仿制药行业掀起一场极具吸引力的权力的游戏。 如果Teva收购了Allergan的仿制药业务，Teva的规模将两倍于Mylan，并将向Mylan施压，就像俗语所言“不成长就被淘汰”。此外，我猜想，如果Teva收购了Allergan的仿制药业务，出于对Teva/Allergan/Mylan三者合并后导致反垄断的担忧，他们可能不会继续收购Mylan。除了已经报道过一段时间的三方探戈，现在辉瑞也正在考虑其仿制药业务的未来。 Mylan显然已经开动其“毒丸”策略（poison pill strategy，指目标公司发现他人有收购的意图时，为对抗收购而制定的股份购买计划，赋予公司股东特定的优先权利，使收购一旦发生，该特定优先权利的行使将导致公司资产的减少和收购方部分投票权的丧失），将其多数投票控制在一个被称为Stichting的独立的荷兰基金会手中。Teva现在正到荷兰法院挑战Mylan的这一举动。如果Teva收购Allergan资产，可能会放弃对Mylan的收购，这将加紧Mylan对Perrigo（前段时间有传言称Perrigo希望被Teva收购）的收购。 那么，这一切意味着什么？其中之一就意味着美国大的仿制药企业越来越少且越来越大。也许对我们来说最重要的事情是，为新的仿制药进入者在行业底层创造了大量机会。由于大企业在顶层的合并减少了主要竞争对手的数量，并为进入行业的新竞争者开放了机会，这正是重建竞争秩序的机会。另外的枝节问题就是，在零利率时代，如此大量的资金变动令人震惊。我还记得当年10亿美金还是很多钱的时候，但现在明显不是那个时候了，刚刚过去的一年中，数千亿美元在药企兼并和收购中被扔来扔去。 无论未来几周发生什么事情，那些关注美国仿制药行业的人一定会对这些并购怀有极大的兴趣。夏日炎炎，仿制药行业并购打的热火朝天，这样的过热劲头大概只有通过上调利率才能有所冷却吧！！ 作者：识林-Pepper The Future Shape of the US Generics Industry? As I am sure you all know Teva has made a takeover bid for Mylan offering Mylan shareholders US$40 billion. I am equally sure you also know that Mylan has made a bid to buy Perrigo for about US$34 billion. Both these bids, Teva for Mylan and Mylan for Perrigo are unwelcome and not supported by the boards of Mylan or Perrigo respectively. This takeover dance has been going on for many weeks now without a lot of progress. Last week there were US media reports that Allergan (the name of the Actavis/Allergan combined company) is looking at options to split its business, presumably spinning off or selling its generic assets. Over this weekend however there have been several media reports that in fact Teva is in advanced negotiation to buy the Allergan generic business for between US$40 and US$45 billion and that such a deal could be announced as early as this coming week. This then sets up a fascinating power play in the US generic industry. If Teva acquired the Allergan generic business it would become more than twice as big as Mylan and put pressure on Mylan to “grow or die” as the saying goes. Also I would guess that if Teva does buy Allergan’s generic business they may not be able to proceed to buy Mylan due to antitrust concerns at the size of the prescription generic drug business that would result from a Teva/Allergan/Mylan combination. In addition to this three party tango there have been reports for some time now that Pfizer is also considering the future of its generic business. For its part Mylan has apparently pulled the trigger on its “poison pill” strategy which hands majority voting control to an independent Dutch Foundation called Stichting. Teva is now headed to a Dutch court to challenge this move. If Teva does buy the Allergan assets they will probably abandon their bid for Mylan which could strengthen Mylan’s hand in trying to buy Perrigo (who are rumored to have approached Teva some time ago). So what might all this mean? Well for one thing it means that the big US generic firms are getting fewer and bigger. Perhaps the most important thing for us is that it creates opportunity at the bottom of the industry for new generic entrants. As the firms at the top consolidate it reduces the number of major competitors and opens up opportunity for new competitors to enter the industry, which is after all built on competition. Perhaps as a side issue, it is amazing how much money is being thrown around in this era of zero interest rates. I remember when a billion US dollars was a lot of money, not now apparently, 100's of billions have been thrown around in pharmaceutical mergers and acquisitions in just the last year or so. Whatever happens the next few weeks promise to be extremely interesting for those with an interest in the US generic industry. All this is happening in the traditional summer vacation, it's enough to make one wonder if interest rates are going to start rising once the summer vacation is over!! 识林TMwww.shilinx.com版权所有，未经许可不得转载。如需使用请联系admin@shilinx.com |